Phil,
Speaking from my own personnel experience I would not leave anything of any value with any local and that includes our fellow countrymen.
I was advised to trust some locals many years ago and it has cost me a lot of money,it wont happen again.
I think you hit the point with your remark about local shepherds,they see everything that goes on,but choose to ignore it,as it is often to their advantage.
These are not random breakins but are part of systematique organised agendas to achieve what they want !
I am not saying give, up but try a different approach.